推断是文章支持、但没有直接写出的结论。臆测则是离开文章的猜想。阅读题经常要求推断，所以分清两者，是精读与证据中最有用的习惯之一。
怎样做出稳妥的推断？
用一条简单的链条：线索、想法、核对。
- 线索（clue）： 在文章中找出具体的词语、动作或细节。
- 想法： 想一想一位合理的读者会从中得出什么结论。
- 核对： 问自己有没有其他细节与这个想法矛盾，以及你是否加入了文中没有的事实。
如果核对这一步需要你编造原因、过去的事件或隐藏的动机，你就已经从推断滑向了臆测。稳妥的推断只离文本一小步。
例题详解
请读下面这段原创短文。
Mr Rahman checked his watch for the third time and set the tray of cakes down on the counter. Nobody from the committee had arrived, though the hall had been booked for seven. He straightened a paper tablecloth that was already straight.
题目： What can you infer about how Mr Rahman is feeling?
线索： “checked his watch for the third time”；“Nobody from the committee had arrived”；“straightened a paper tablecloth that was already straight”。
想法： 他焦虑而且不耐烦。他一再看表，又去整理本来就很整齐的东西，说明他坐立不安。
核对： 没有其他细节与此矛盾，而且这个想法不需要编造任何事实。
Mr Rahman seems anxious. He checks his watch “for the third time”, which shows he is watching the clock, and he straightens a tablecloth “that was already straight”, which suggests he is fidgeting because he cannot relax.
要留意的错误
常见的错误是编出一个文章里没有的故事。
Speculation: The committee forgot Mr Rahman because they do not like him, and he is upset that nobody respects him.
文章没有写委员会不喜欢他，也没有写有人忘了。迟到可能有许多普通的原因。这位学生加入了原因、人际关系和“不被尊重”的感受，这些都无法在文中找到对应的词语。
改正的方法是只停留在线索所显示的内容：他在等待，在看时间，显得不安。写上 “suggests he is anxious”，然后就停下来。如果还想深入，就问问文章有没有第二个线索。
自我检测
请根据上面的短文作答。
1. Is this an inference or speculation? “Mr Rahman baked the cakes himself.”
Show answer
Speculation. 文章只说他放下了一盘蛋糕，没有说是谁烤的。也许是买的、取来的，或别人给的。
2. Give one inference about the committee’s meeting and one clue.
Show answer
一个稳妥的答案：会议迟迟没有开始，因为 “Nobody from the committee had arrived, though the hall had been booked for seven”。另一个答案是 Mr Rahman 到得早或准备充分，因为蛋糕已经摆好。
3. A student writes: “He is fidgeting, so he must have had a terrible day at work.” What is wrong?
Show answer
这个说法加入了文章从未提到的原因（工作上糟糕的一天）。坐立不安可以支持 “nervous” 或 “restless”，但不能支持来自文本之外的原因。更稳妥的写法是：“His fidgeting suggests he is nervous about the meeting.”
接下来学什么
下一步是学习为诠释选择精准证据，让每个推断都有最短而有用的引文支持。在此之前，如果你不确定哪些意思是文章直接写出的，可以先复习找出明确细节。
爱读书的学生常常很难独自看清推断与猜想之间的界线。我们的老师在一对一线上 English First Language 补习中专门训练这条界线。